Ye Myo Hein@ Ko Ye is the Visiting Scholar at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), and a Global Fellow with the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He is also the executive director of the Tagaung Institute of Political Studies (TIPS), a policy research institute based in Yangon, Myanmar. His research primarily focuses on conflict, security, civil-military relations and transitional politics of Myanmar. Currently, he resides in Maryland, United States.
INSIGHTS AND ANALYSIS
Myanmar’s Resistance Is Gaining Ground, but It Needs U.S. Help
Co-authored with Lucas Myers, The New York Times [December 22, 2023]
Over the past two months, the generals’ aura of invincibility has been significantly dented at home.
The Existential Threat Facing Myanmar’s Junta
The Irrawaddy [December 5, 2023]
In light of recent developments, the international community needs to recognize the current evolving military equilibrium in Myanmar.
Charting the Shifting Power Balance on Myanmar’s Battlefields
The Irrawaddy [December 2, 2023]
History may one day conclude that the military coup of February 2021 proved fatal to the Myanmar military’s decades-long monopoly on power ....
Don’t Give a Wild Beast a Taste of Blood
The Irrawaddy [October 20, 2023]
In reference to Neville Chamberlain’s policy appeasing Hitler, Italian leader Benito Mussolini once famously remarked that it was akin to “giving a wild beast a taste of blood.” The international community should be acutely aware of the dangers of emboldening ......
Is Myanmar’s Junta Turning a Corner?
Co-authored with Priscilla Clapp, USIP [August 10, 2023]
It is too early for the international community to contemplate making peace between the junta regime and the powerful anti-coup resistance. However, it would be useful for international actors to work holistically with key elements of the resistance .....
Is Myanmar the Frontline of a New Cold War?
How America and China Are Reshaping the Burmese Civil War
Co-authored with Lucas Myers, Foreign Affairs [June 19, 2023]
Ever since the Burmese military seized power in a coup in early 2021, the country has been caught in a deadly tailspin. What began as peaceful mass protest against the junta flared into armed resistance, with much of the country descending into renewed civil war.
Myanmar’s Military Is Smaller Than Commonly Thought — and Shrinking Fast
USIP [May 4, 2023]
A lack of reliable data has led international actors to overrate the junta’s strength and its potential role in resolving the country’s conflict.
Myanmar’s Criminal Junta Will Do Anything to Consolidate Power
USIP [March 9, 2023]
Military abandons plans for August elections, dashing naïve hopes that the would-be sham polls provided a path to stability.
The Closing Window Problem Facing Myanmar’s Pro-Democracy Forces
Co-authored with Lucas Myers, The Wilson Center [March 2, 2023]
While it is unfair to expect a pro-democracy movement that has suffered so much to achieve yet greater military success, a revolutionary base area is likely necessary ......
US Burma Act Uplifts the Resistance Movement in Myanmar
The Diplomat [February 1, 2023]
The incorporation of the Burma Act in the 2023 NDAA has raised strong public expectations in Myanmar that substantial U.S. support will be forthcoming.
Greater Military Cooperation is Needed in the Burmese Resistance Movement
The Stimson Center [January 18, 2023]
As violence continues to escalate in Myanmar, resistance forces should facilitate greater military cooperation to leverage their strength against the military junta.
For Myanmar, the Only Path to Stability Runs Through its Web of Resistance Forces
Co-authored with Billy Ford, USIP [December 1, 2022]
Perfect unity among the coup regime’s opponents is neither realistic nor optimal, but ......
Understanding the People’s Defense Forces in Myanmar
USIP [November 2, 2022]
Despite facing serious and ferocious crackdowns, Myanmar’s revolutionary guerilla movement has survived the first phase and built widespread public support.
In Myanmar, Sham Elections Aren’t the Path to Stability
Co-authored with Priscilla Clapp, USIP [October 27, 2022]
As the junta considers elections amid national chaos, the international community should avoid misplaced hopes that the results will augur change.
Myanmar’s Military is a Regional Destabilizer
The Wilson Center [August 29, 2022]
Countering the military takeover should thus be a priority for Myanmar’s neighbors lest the situation spiral further out of control.
Engagement With Myanmar’s Junta Has Failed
Foreign Policy [August 16, 2022]
The heinous atrocity perpetrated by the junta in executing the four activists has been etched into the memory of Myanmar’s people.
Myanmar Military’s Culture of Atrocities
The Irrawaddy [July 12, 2022]
Expecting the military with a deep-seated institutional culture of atrocities to bring the country back to a democratic and stable future is pure fantasy. Without radically reforming the institution, the Sit-Tat will always be a poison pill for the future of the country.
A MORE UNITED, BETTER-ARMED OPPOSITION CAN BRING DEMOCRACY TO MYANMAR
Co-authored with Lucas Myers, War on the Rocks [June 23, 2022]
The pro-democracy movement’s political and military problems may be pressing, but .....
One Year On: The Momentum of Myanmar’s Armed Rebellion
The Wilson Center and Tagaung Institute of Political Studies [May, 2022]
This report explores the development of the conflict in Myanmar, its trends, and potential outlook.
Action on Ukraine, Quiescence on Myanmar
Co-authored with Lucas Myers, The Wilson Center [April, 2022]
A deft foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific focused on threats to global order from revisionist states but also cognizant of differences between Russia and China is likely more persuasive to U.S. allies and partners.
The Root Causes of Myanmar’s Coup Go Deeper
The Wilson Center [March, 2022]
Myanmar’s current democratic struggle is not just a local issue but one with wider political significance to the region. The end of democratic struggle implies an end of hope for the revival of democracy in the whole region. Therefore, the democratic countries of the world must firmly stand with Myanmar’s new politics and support the younger generation of democratic activists in Myanmar.
The Coup in Burma: One Year Later
Co-authored with Lucas Myers, The Wilson Center [February 1, 2022]
From a U.S. perspective, there are a variety of policy actions that U.S. Congress and the Administration have available to apply further pressure on the regime and promote democracy:
The Coup D’état in Myanmar: A Year of International Inaction
Co-authored with Lucas Myers, The Wilson Center [February 1, 2022]
Under the military and current crisis, it will remain an open wound in Southeast Asia and ASEAN; a source of regional instability, drug trafficking, COVID-19, and refugees; and .......
Myanmar’s Military Knows Only the Language of Force
The Irrawaddy [January 26, 2022]
Without considering these factors, expecting the obstinate generals to negotiate is pure fantasy. Repeated calls for negotiation by the international community fall on deaf ears ....
Lofty Rhetoric, Lack of Action on Democracy in Southeast Asia
Co-authored with Lucas Myers, The Wilson Center [December, 2021]
There is still time to stop democratic decline and help the U.S. and its partners reclaim credibility as defenders of democracy. This change should start in Myanmar ......
Don’t Believe What the Defenders of Myanmar’s Junta Say
The National Interest [December 26, 2021]
The Burmese military has its share of defenders both at home and, increasingly, abroad. But they are merely sharing “a skyful of lies.”
A New Politics is Taking Shape in Myanmar
The Irrawaddy [December 1, 2021]
This new politics has not obviously arisen from top leaders and elite politics, but from a new political generation and experience of a painful revolution.
Seizing the State: The Emergence of a Distinct Security Actor in Myanmar
Co-authored with Lucas Myers, The Wilson Center [November, 2021]
Most importantly, the PDFs and the NUG distinguish this phase of the conflict from previous fighting in the past three decades with their role as a distinct security actor with a new political objective.
Myanmar’s Transition From Electoral Politics to Gun Politics
The Irrawaddy [November 11, 2021]
the military’s coup brought the curtain down on electoral politics. One year after the 2020 elections, “gun politics” has become the only game in town in Myanmar.
Myanmar’s Junta Has No Diplomatic Cards to Play
The Irrawaddy [October 22, 2021]
Now, the regime cannot even rely on the old diplomatic playbook of previous dictators. Among the junta’s many failures, that may prove to be extremely costly ......
Finding fault lines within the Tatmadaw
Frontier Myanmar [September 16, 2021]
A split in the Tatmadaw has until now been considered unlikely but a steady increase in defections and desertions since the coup amid plunging morale has some questioning whether unity can be maintained within the nation’s most powerful institution.
Visions of a Federal Future for Myanmar are Fading Fast (Part II)
The Irrawaddy [September 2, 2021]
Myanmar will continue to head only in a dire direction if the shared vision on the future of the country is not revamped and re-envisioned soon.
Visions of a Federal Future for Myanmar are Fading Fast (Part I)
The Irrawaddy [September 1, 2021]
The FPNCC, despite its name starting with ‘Federal’, has apparently not accepted federalism as a future structure of the state.
How to Cooperate Over the Burma Coup
The National Interest [August 14, 2021]
America and its allies should use their diplomatic leverage to urge all member states to follow the resolution of the UN General Assembly to halt the flow of arms into Burma and to cut the junta and its collaborators off from external financial sources.
Demystifying the Narratives on the Myanmar Military
The Irrawaddy [August 13, 2021]
Rather than resort to the old narratives attached to the military, the time has come for the international community to demystify the old narratives....
Myanmar’s junta on a path of no return
Asia Times [August 8, 2021]
Myanmar’s coup was a well-laid plan aimed at preserving military interests and eliminating Suu Kyi and her NLD once and for all. With only coercive power and no moral authority, the military has put the country on a path of no return headed in only dire directions.
We can't just let Myanmar suffocate
Bangkok Post [July 21, 2021]
The current situation in the country is no longer an ordinary humanitarian crisis but an alarming humanitarian disaster within a failing state. Therefore, the UN should no longer be hesitant or indifferent...
INTERVIEW AND COMMENTARY
“Predicting the ultimate outcome in the ongoing military progress is challenging, as I see it still in the initial phase of the resistance’s strategy. However, one certainty is that Operation 1027 has shifted the military equilibrium in favor of the resistance,” said Ye Myo Hein, fellow at the United States Institute of Peace and the Wilson Center."
"Opponents vow ‘beginning of the end’ for Myanmar’s junta as resistance launches nationwide offensive," CNN [November 28, 2023]
“China has been steadily expanding its influence in Myanmar for a considerable period,” said Ye Myo Hein, a pro-democracy scholar and visiting fellow with the USIP and the Wilson Center in Washington. He told The Washington Times that China views Myanmar “as a strategic hot spot at the intersection of its borders, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean."
"China views Myanmar as hot spot in Cold War with Washington," The Washington Times [July 3, 2023]
“The resistance has become better capable to contest the junta’s control,” said Ye Myo Hein, a fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., who heads the Tagaung Institute of Political Studies, a Myanmar think tank. The greater challenge for the resistance, he added, is holding and controlling what it contests, especially in urban areas, which the junta still commands."
"Two Years After Coup, Battle of Attrition Grinds on in Myanmar" VOA [January 20, 2023]
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